Minnesota State Representative Jeremy Kalin (DFL - North Branch) announced today that he will not seek a third term in the Minnesota House of Representatives. This development could be a local version of the rash of retirements by Congressoinal Democrats as they face an election year going into a political headwind. It is widely believed that Democrats currently representing districts that lean Republican or are swing districts are highly vulnerable.

Kalin was elected in 2006 in his second attempt to defeat GOP incumben Pete Nelson. His margin of victory that year was 204 votes in a race where over 19,000 votes were cast, for a difference of 1.07%. In 2008 he won by a more comfortable 1,675 votes over GOP challenger Don Taylor.

It is a likely scenario that as Rep. Kalin was making his decision, he had to see the writing on the wall. His district, 17B, includes most of Chisago County, which is a swing district that tends to lean Republican. In 2008, John McCain carried the district over Barack H. Obama with 53 percent of the vote. Norm Coleman carried the district with 47.4% of the vote over Al Franken's 33.67% and Dean Barkley's 18.2%. Yes, Kalin had won twice, but in election years that were very anti-Republican. This year will be different, and Kalin knows it.

Three good GOP candidates are vying for the Republican endorsement, including Taylor, Wyoming Mayor Sheldon Anderson, and former Chisago County Commissioner Russ Goudge. While any one of these three could have defeated Kalin this year, the open seat makes it a much more likely GOP pick-up.